Thursday, May 22, 2008
Vince's secret power exposed?
Maybe this is why Vince Cable is such an outstanding practical economist. He dances.
Or so you might conclude from this argument from a key modern outline of economics.
So perhaps the mental training of a good dancer really does help develop a receptive mind for understanding the dynamics of ‘complex adapting systems’ – giving Vince the edge over the more leaden footed.
Mind you I think that the author of this extract (Diane Coyle) may underestimate the tacit skills gap between following recipes and cooking great food.
Extract source Coyle, D (2007) ‘The Soulful Science: what economists really do and why it matters’ pp36-37
Or so you might conclude from this argument from a key modern outline of economics.
Getting an economy to expand is more like dancing than cooking. The frequently used metaphor of finding right “policy recipe” is misleading… it is not possible to set down a simple list of ingredients and a technique anyone could follow.
Getting an economy expanding… depends on a complex sequence of decisions and policies, involving many partners … past choices, current resources and good luck
So perhaps the mental training of a good dancer really does help develop a receptive mind for understanding the dynamics of ‘complex adapting systems’ – giving Vince the edge over the more leaden footed.
Mind you I think that the author of this extract (Diane Coyle) may underestimate the tacit skills gap between following recipes and cooking great food.
Extract source Coyle, D (2007) ‘The Soulful Science: what economists really do and why it matters’ pp36-37
Labels: economics, Vince Cable
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Love it!
I've always thought that politics in general is like music, and writing a speech like composing a song.
Let's face the music and dance!
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I've always thought that politics in general is like music, and writing a speech like composing a song.
Let's face the music and dance!
Saturday, May 03, 2008
There are facts and there are what the BBC reports...
One of the glories of the BBC Thursday night coverage of the recent election results was the repeated claim (flashed on their screen ticker) that the LibDems had targeted Milton Keynes Council to get overall control from NOC in the Friday morning counts. This was news to the MK LibDem campaign team at least. How this notion got around we don’t know.
For those of you who were looking out for the results and thought we had a setback because we didn’t win control, here are some facts.
Mk was a heavy Tory target. The Tories had two good years in the three year cycle and this year had only two seats to defend, both cast iron certain holds. Eight of the seats up had LibDem defenders seven had Labour. The Tories targeted five of ours and we think five of Labours and were pushing to seize immediate control.
As the largest party in an NOC Council (we held all the Cabinet posts) we were on the defensive. We set out to hold our seats against the Tories and make compensating gains from Labour.
In the event the Tories took two of our seats. We gained one from Labour. The Tories took a seat from Labour we were also targeting, Labour being forced into third place. They took two other seats from Labour. The consequence of all this to-ing and fro-ing was that the Tories had some real success. But their big push for control failed and the Libdems are still the largest party in MK – just.
In two of our successful defences our candidates got the highest ever LibDem votes recorded in these ward boundaries.
What all this means in terms of the Cabinet I cant say, but that is where we are now.
This is an excellent result for the LibDems in MK. Our opponents are suprised and disappointed. Come the next round of elections now in 2010, there will be lots and lots of Tory seats up for grabs, including three in wards where they failed to get additional seats from us in the years after making a gain.
For those of you who were looking out for the results and thought we had a setback because we didn’t win control, here are some facts.
Mk was a heavy Tory target. The Tories had two good years in the three year cycle and this year had only two seats to defend, both cast iron certain holds. Eight of the seats up had LibDem defenders seven had Labour. The Tories targeted five of ours and we think five of Labours and were pushing to seize immediate control.
As the largest party in an NOC Council (we held all the Cabinet posts) we were on the defensive. We set out to hold our seats against the Tories and make compensating gains from Labour.
In the event the Tories took two of our seats. We gained one from Labour. The Tories took a seat from Labour we were also targeting, Labour being forced into third place. They took two other seats from Labour. The consequence of all this to-ing and fro-ing was that the Tories had some real success. But their big push for control failed and the Libdems are still the largest party in MK – just.
In two of our successful defences our candidates got the highest ever LibDem votes recorded in these ward boundaries.
What all this means in terms of the Cabinet I cant say, but that is where we are now.
This is an excellent result for the LibDems in MK. Our opponents are suprised and disappointed. Come the next round of elections now in 2010, there will be lots and lots of Tory seats up for grabs, including three in wards where they failed to get additional seats from us in the years after making a gain.
Labels: BBC, Elections, Milton Keynes
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Wednesday, April 30, 2008
The Umbrella and Tory Weather
Looks like we will have somewhat wet periods on Polling Day. Years ago we used to wind up Tory tellers at poll stations by calling this 'Tory Weather'. General seeping misery for most which the wealthy could avoid.
Back when car owners were disproportionally Tories, really wet weather on polling day was reconed to be worth an extra 150 votes difference at least per ward in the Tories favour because of differential impact on the turnouts. The gallows humour of those awaiting the counts afer a rainy pollday included muttering the doggerel:
The rain falls down upon the Just
As on the Unjust feller
But less upon the Unjust
'Cos they've got the Just's umbrella.
And so muuter I having just put out several hundred eve-of-poll letters in a tight tango of 'heavy showers'. We shall see..
Back when car owners were disproportionally Tories, really wet weather on polling day was reconed to be worth an extra 150 votes difference at least per ward in the Tories favour because of differential impact on the turnouts. The gallows humour of those awaiting the counts afer a rainy pollday included muttering the doggerel:
The rain falls down upon the Just
As on the Unjust feller
But less upon the Unjust
'Cos they've got the Just's umbrella.
And so muuter I having just put out several hundred eve-of-poll letters in a tight tango of 'heavy showers'. We shall see..
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Friday, April 18, 2008
Dunwoody political memories
The political life of Gwyneth Dunwoody shows how someone can make a mark on the world, and get a deserved memory, without actually climbing to the top of the proverbial greasy pole.
It is to the discredit of the House of Commons that she was not elected to the Speakership at the last contest for that post. Who can doubt that she would have been a much better protector of the rights of ordinary MPs ( and the courtesies due to them) than the present incumbent.
And as she said in 2005, Parliament is the last defender of the rights of all citizens. We really miss having a speaker with that instinctive feel for the constitution.
She and her then husband Dr. John Dunwoody (at one time touted as a future Labour leader) were both elected to Parliament in the 1966 Labour landslide, she for Exeter and he for Falmouth and Cambourne. And thereby hangs a long political tail. John Dunwoody was made a junior minister, partially to dampen his critical backbench activities, and as a consequence was unable to give proper attention to his marginal seat. He probably knew he would lose - at the 1970 general election he failed to attend an important public meeting, sending instead an aide with a tape recording to play to the assembled voters. This rather reduced his standing in Labour circles and the comments on this possibly influenced his decision to withdraw from parliamentary politics, turning down the opportunity to become candidate for Plymouth Devonport. Selected instead, and victorious for Labour in 1974, was another political doctor, one David Owen of diverse later fame.
Gwyneth Dunwoody also lost her West Country seat in 1970, setting up a favourite political pub quiz question on husband and wife MP pairings. She stuck to the political route and in 1974 became the member for Crewe and a long-term thorn in the side of slippery political operators of all persuasions..
My condolences to her family.
It is to the discredit of the House of Commons that she was not elected to the Speakership at the last contest for that post. Who can doubt that she would have been a much better protector of the rights of ordinary MPs ( and the courtesies due to them) than the present incumbent.
And as she said in 2005, Parliament is the last defender of the rights of all citizens. We really miss having a speaker with that instinctive feel for the constitution.
She and her then husband Dr. John Dunwoody (at one time touted as a future Labour leader) were both elected to Parliament in the 1966 Labour landslide, she for Exeter and he for Falmouth and Cambourne. And thereby hangs a long political tail. John Dunwoody was made a junior minister, partially to dampen his critical backbench activities, and as a consequence was unable to give proper attention to his marginal seat. He probably knew he would lose - at the 1970 general election he failed to attend an important public meeting, sending instead an aide with a tape recording to play to the assembled voters. This rather reduced his standing in Labour circles and the comments on this possibly influenced his decision to withdraw from parliamentary politics, turning down the opportunity to become candidate for Plymouth Devonport. Selected instead, and victorious for Labour in 1974, was another political doctor, one David Owen of diverse later fame.
Gwyneth Dunwoody also lost her West Country seat in 1970, setting up a favourite political pub quiz question on husband and wife MP pairings. She stuck to the political route and in 1974 became the member for Crewe and a long-term thorn in the side of slippery political operators of all persuasions..
My condolences to her family.
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Wednesday, April 09, 2008
UK Chinese community and Tibet - well done Anna Lo
The son of Ulster Assembly Member Anna Lo was arrested during the protests in London around the lympic Torch procession. And his mother is proud of him.
Conall Hon, a member of the 'Students for a Free Tibet' group, abseiled from Westminster Bridge holding a Tibetian flag. He said:
His mother said:
The Alliance Party of NI Assembly Member is one of the highest ranking members of the UK Chinese community elected to public office. She shows us we need to engage with the UK Chinese community, making the point that supporting the Tibetian people is not an anti-Chinese conspiracy but something patriotic Chinese people need to be involved with as well.
Conall Hon, a member of the 'Students for a Free Tibet' group, abseiled from Westminster Bridge holding a Tibetian flag. He said:
"As someone with Chinese and British roots, I feel strongly that Britain must take a firm stance against China's abuses in Tibet.
"If the Chinese government wants acceptance from the international community, it must immediately stop its baseless attacks on the Dalai Lama and start working
toward a meaningful solution to the Tibetan issue."
His mother said:
"I know that a lot of Chinese people here [Northern Ireland] are very patriotic about China... and, in fact, I fell out with some members of my family because my son was so active in Free Tibet.
But I keep on saying to members of my family that we are not against Chinese people - we are only against the Chinese government, the Chinese regime and its
policies."
The Alliance Party of NI Assembly Member is one of the highest ranking members of the UK Chinese community elected to public office. She shows us we need to engage with the UK Chinese community, making the point that supporting the Tibetian people is not an anti-Chinese conspiracy but something patriotic Chinese people need to be involved with as well.
Labels: China, human rights, Tibet
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Wednesday, April 02, 2008
The baleful legacy of Labour in Wales
Simon Jenkins puts his finger on something very important in Welsh politics in this Guardian book review.
That looks a pretty good characterisation of traditional Labour practice in Wales, which basically aimed to marginalise the country to provide reliably Socialist lobby fodder in Westminster to outweigh the Tory bias in England and Scotland. (Older readers will remember a time when the Tories held 40 or so of Scotland’s then-72 Westminster MPs). But of course it wasn’t directed just against ‘Welsh Nationalism’ but also against the local self-help traditions of Wales that nourished Welsh Liberalism.
Jenkin’s aside is one quibble in an otherwise glowing review of ‘The Welsh Academy Encyclopaedia of Wales’. Jenkins does not mention what the entries for Liberalism are in this work, though presumably there are some, as he notes entries for the Tories. Could some kind LibDem AM or someone on their research staff look up and report on these entries? At £65 a copy (OK £55 on Amazon or even £50 on Amazon if you want the Gwyddoniadur Cymru Yr Academi Gymreig ) it is a bit pricey for me.
A mild leftwing bias renders some entries (in the encyclopaedia) far too gentle. No mention is made of the role of the British Labour party or British trade unionism in stamping on emergent Welsh nationalism in the 20th century.
I am not convinced that the 1979 referendum vote against devolution was against "a national future". It rather reflected the enervation of Welsh politics by generations of Labour leaders, who until 1964 refused Wales even its own secretary of state. This enervation continues in the suppression of Welsh local government, especially in north Wales, by the new Cardiff Assembly.
That looks a pretty good characterisation of traditional Labour practice in Wales, which basically aimed to marginalise the country to provide reliably Socialist lobby fodder in Westminster to outweigh the Tory bias in England and Scotland. (Older readers will remember a time when the Tories held 40 or so of Scotland’s then-72 Westminster MPs). But of course it wasn’t directed just against ‘Welsh Nationalism’ but also against the local self-help traditions of Wales that nourished Welsh Liberalism.
Jenkin’s aside is one quibble in an otherwise glowing review of ‘The Welsh Academy Encyclopaedia of Wales’. Jenkins does not mention what the entries for Liberalism are in this work, though presumably there are some, as he notes entries for the Tories. Could some kind LibDem AM or someone on their research staff look up and report on these entries? At £65 a copy (OK £55 on Amazon or even £50 on Amazon if you want the Gwyddoniadur Cymru Yr Academi Gymreig ) it is a bit pricey for me.
Labels: Labour, liberalism, Wales
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Friday, March 28, 2008
Meanwhile in eve-of-poll Zimbabwe
With the elections in Zimbabwe on March 29th, the website of Socwanele, the Zimbabwe Social Action Support Group, gives sombre latest information. Particularly striking is the google map of election violations that include:
Voter registration problems
Food supply (cutting off ‘opposition’ areas)
Unlawful detention
Vote buying
Political violence.
Political cleansing
Murder
Looting
This political cleansing story as an example, from Umguza district near Bulawayo:
The Zimbabwe Today blog (Moses Moyo) reports that Zimbabwe military are massively on the streets. He ends this posting by saying:
Some people out there with Zimbabwe keyboards have incredible courage. It puts this UK blogging, and delivering FOCUS leaflets in the rain, in sharp contrast.
Voter registration problems
Food supply (cutting off ‘opposition’ areas)
Unlawful detention
Vote buying
Political violence.
Political cleansing
Murder
Looting
This political cleansing story as an example, from Umguza district near Bulawayo:
two little sisters are in primary school. They're only 11 and 13. But outside school they were confronted by a gang of men armed with axes and clubs. The men told them that they would be killed, and their bodies burned to ashes... They told her that anyone who belonged to the MDC faced death if they didn't run away.
The Zimbabwe Today blog (Moses Moyo) reports that Zimbabwe military are massively on the streets. He ends this posting by saying:
Finally, just a few hours before the polls open, may I express a personal wish. I hope and trust that all my fellow citizens who can will turn out to vote tomorrow. Afterwards, when the results become known, please be careful. We live in dangerous times.
Some people out there with Zimbabwe keyboards have incredible courage. It puts this UK blogging, and delivering FOCUS leaflets in the rain, in sharp contrast.
Labels: Zimbabwe
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Thursday, March 27, 2008
Sarkozy, ou le nouveau Lamartine
The last time any French government made a particular strong point on being positive about Britain was during the Second Republic of 1848-1852.
Indeed it was the most anglophile administration in French history, even including the period of the establishment of the Entente Cordiale. Much talk about learning from British institutions, working together, and adopting similar commercial and economic strategies. Britain was for almost the only time in French history described in positive terms, and held up as a model to be copied.
The poet Alphonse de Lamartine was effectively head of government in the chaotic five-member executive and specialised in ringing declarations of intent including some of the most Liberal propositions ever floated in mainstream French politics..
Despite (or possibly because of) this rhetorical attempt to shift French foreign and domestic policy the Republic collapsed into the authoritarian nationalist and state-sponsored economic backwaters of the Second Empire. Lamartine was forced into an obscure retirement.
Visiting President Sarkozy of France is using his time here to make positive statements about ‘working together’ with Britain, and even (so far) avoiding comments about the food.
I hope that both he and Brown (or at least their respective advisors) are familiar with the entertaining book ‘That Sweet Enemy’ and are working on ways to avoid the worse of the stereotypes we have of each other. A necessary humility to underpin any ‘entente formidable’ or even ‘amicale’. Back home though, we can expect Sarkozy’s opponents gleefully to exploit the gut-distrust of the French political groupuscules towards ‘Anglo-Saxon liberalism’. Tests will come when the President has to match actions with words.
‘Voyons voir’ as my relatives in Burgundy say.
Reference: Robert and Isabelle Tombs ‘That Sweet Enemy; the French and the British from the Sun King to the present’ otherwise sub-titled ‘a history of a love-hate relationship’. See here for a review.
Indeed it was the most anglophile administration in French history, even including the period of the establishment of the Entente Cordiale. Much talk about learning from British institutions, working together, and adopting similar commercial and economic strategies. Britain was for almost the only time in French history described in positive terms, and held up as a model to be copied.
The poet Alphonse de Lamartine was effectively head of government in the chaotic five-member executive and specialised in ringing declarations of intent including some of the most Liberal propositions ever floated in mainstream French politics..
Despite (or possibly because of) this rhetorical attempt to shift French foreign and domestic policy the Republic collapsed into the authoritarian nationalist and state-sponsored economic backwaters of the Second Empire. Lamartine was forced into an obscure retirement.
Visiting President Sarkozy of France is using his time here to make positive statements about ‘working together’ with Britain, and even (so far) avoiding comments about the food.
I hope that both he and Brown (or at least their respective advisors) are familiar with the entertaining book ‘That Sweet Enemy’ and are working on ways to avoid the worse of the stereotypes we have of each other. A necessary humility to underpin any ‘entente formidable’ or even ‘amicale’. Back home though, we can expect Sarkozy’s opponents gleefully to exploit the gut-distrust of the French political groupuscules towards ‘Anglo-Saxon liberalism’. Tests will come when the President has to match actions with words.
‘Voyons voir’ as my relatives in Burgundy say.
Reference: Robert and Isabelle Tombs ‘That Sweet Enemy; the French and the British from the Sun King to the present’ otherwise sub-titled ‘a history of a love-hate relationship’. See here for a review.
Labels: Britain, France, liberalism, Sarkozy
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Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Fleashing out Liberal musings
Its not easy being Liberal, and we have to struggle on with public debates that ignore or travesty our views. So we should celebrate columnists like the Observers Simon Caulkin who often raise and illuminate arguments that resonate with us. Take this for example:
But there is more. Caulkin is also scathing about a private sector where
The central point of the column is to discuss a theory put out by the late great Jane Jacobs on two approaches to economic and social organisation. Each is upheld by a distinct ‘moral syndrome’.
We need both Caulkin says, agreeing with Jacobs,
….the public sector is in the grip of a central planning regime of a rigidity and incompetence not seen since Gosplan wrote Stalin's Five-Year Plans…name another government since Leonid Brezhnev's that prescribes 198 targets for local government, numbers and postings of junior doctors, reading methods for teachers in primary schools, cleaning techniques used in hospitals
and how GPs should organise their appointment diaries.(198 reasons we are in this terrible mess. Observer, 9 March 2008)
But there is more. Caulkin is also scathing about a private sector where
…market rules are so degraded that it has become the role of companies in the real economy, some built up over decades, to act as chips tossed around by high rollers in the City supercasino.
The central point of the column is to discuss a theory put out by the late great Jane Jacobs on two approaches to economic and social organisation. Each is upheld by a distinct ‘moral syndrome’.
commerce thrives on a syndrome of honesty, competition, respect for contracts, initiative and enterprise, optimism, thrift, willingness to collaborate and agree, and avoidance of force.
The other syndrome, which Jacobs dubs the 'guardian' syndrome because it derives from territorial protection, by contrast emphasises loyalty, honour, tradition, prowess, exclusivity and the distribution of largesse. Trading is anathema to it.
We need both Caulkin says, agreeing with Jacobs,
The whole thing needs to be read. Interesting to do so while digesting the points made in Nick Clegg’s latest Conference speech……the disastrous results of the GP contract can be traced directly to the government's determination to turn an essentially guardian organisation into a commercial one….The point about the syndromes is that one isn't better than, or replaceable by, the other: they're symbiotic. It follows that the ability to navigate between them, maintaining their integrity but knowing when to switch, is vital. If, as Jacobs suggests, such a capability is a mark of civilisation, we can only conclude we are going in the opposite direction to what New Labour intended: backwards.
Labels: Caulkin, economics, Jane Jacobs, public service
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Oh My Oath! Even higher status than an ASBO.
So OK you have a bunch of 18 year olds lined up to be initiated into 'belonging and commitment' by taking a personal oath of loyalty to the Monarch. And at least one refuses.
What happens then? What is the status of those persons? Is it recorded on their national identity database that they are oath refuseniks? Do they suffer any reductions in their citizenship status as a result? Are they to be barred from getting student loans or grants?
Remember we are not talking about people getting naturalised, giving up one allegiance and taking up allegiance to this country. We are talking about people born with the pains and pleasures of UK-ness who have a right to citizenship.
In the glorious tradition of the law of unintended consequences we have found that the ASBO, for some people, becomes a kind of battle honour, a mark of status gained by putting up defiant fingers to 'authority'. I suspect that, for the rebellious and uproarious, 'oath-refusal' might be an even more potent tribal marker.
And on a sober note, being a Quaker I cannot as a matter of conscience take any kind of oath at all. Quaker teenagers commiting to this tradition will likewise not be able to swear allegiance in the way suggested. So the young people for whom I have some care in my Quaker Meetings are directly threatened by this notion.
I do wish some people would actually be proud of the relaxed and civilised way we manage some things in this country instead of being Daily Mail panicked into pseudo-patriotic stunts.
What happens then? What is the status of those persons? Is it recorded on their national identity database that they are oath refuseniks? Do they suffer any reductions in their citizenship status as a result? Are they to be barred from getting student loans or grants?
Remember we are not talking about people getting naturalised, giving up one allegiance and taking up allegiance to this country. We are talking about people born with the pains and pleasures of UK-ness who have a right to citizenship.
In the glorious tradition of the law of unintended consequences we have found that the ASBO, for some people, becomes a kind of battle honour, a mark of status gained by putting up defiant fingers to 'authority'. I suspect that, for the rebellious and uproarious, 'oath-refusal' might be an even more potent tribal marker.
And on a sober note, being a Quaker I cannot as a matter of conscience take any kind of oath at all. Quaker teenagers commiting to this tradition will likewise not be able to swear allegiance in the way suggested. So the young people for whom I have some care in my Quaker Meetings are directly threatened by this notion.
I do wish some people would actually be proud of the relaxed and civilised way we manage some things in this country instead of being Daily Mail panicked into pseudo-patriotic stunts.
Labels: allegiance, oaths, quakers
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Why does this story make me think of the film Starship Troopers!?
We will soon be nicely boxed into citizens, those who have earned the right to the full benefits of the state, and civilians who decline on grounds of faith or belief to adhere to the demanded norm.
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We will soon be nicely boxed into citizens, those who have earned the right to the full benefits of the state, and civilians who decline on grounds of faith or belief to adhere to the demanded norm.
