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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Hooray - But Trident costs only start of urgent debate that we need 

It is good news that Nick Clegg is moving onto a more realistic position on ‘Trident’.
I support the slightly qualified pleasure Lindy blogs to this news. Yes we MUST have a full debate at the next Federal Conference. Our present voted-on policy is not a fudge, it is an acid drop.

‘Trident’ (the missile system) is only a minor part of the problem we face and we need to look at these wider issues if we as a party are to regain full coherence on this issue. Pushing Trident as the issue is in a way a smokescreen hiding the real problems.

On the question of costs we must demand a proper financial statement of the overall ‘nuclear weapons’ policy. The Armed Forces insist that huge chunks of the current Nuclear Weapons costs never appear in the Defence Estimates, but are scattered over several other budgets. Claims that this extra expenditure amounts to several thousand million pounds over the last decade need to be investigated. If substantiated, the sums should be publicly admitted and placed before the public as evidence in debates on the cost of the deterrent. As costs which might be cut if certain decisions are made. Just scrapping the Trident missile will not bring is real savings, if hard choice cost savings are the driving impulse for a review.

Back in July 2008 some of our MPs signed an open letter on nuclear warhead replacement. I have blogged at boring length on all this over the years, but to summarise many of my comments from my posting on that initiative:

We should for example:
1 Look at the way the debates on this are put into ‘defining frames’ that shut out important questions and make sure we bring in some neglected frames and themes. Please, no more tribal ‘unilateralist or not’ hot-button posturing.
2 Insist that the whole question of expenditures on AWRE Aldermaston is put in the public domain, at least to equal the public accountability enforced on equivalent establishments in the USA.
3 Insist on a complete review of the way all our weapons procurement policies are managed especially on whether purchasing decision are made to subsidise industries rather than to meet vital defence needs.
4 Make clear the connections between the procurement mess and the corruption allegations about the dealings of BAe and certain foreign customers.
5 Examine the evolution of new non-nuclear high-destruction weapons that may make nuclear devices an expensive obsolescence in the next couple of decades.
6 Above all, insist on a clear strategy for armed forces evolution and for equipping our forces actually to do the jobs we say they must.



Nick Harvey’s February 2007 blog from before the last Federal Conference debate has some points on the issue that I raised, but were not as far as I can see answered. Also some points on a Nick Harvey led discussion in LibDem Voice (February 26th 2007). Looking back at these official party positions now makes it clearer than ever that we need a full debate at upcoming Federal Conference 2009

(Just to remind ourselves that the Non-Proliferation Treaty comes up for re-negotiation in 2010. Almost certainly now an election year in the UK. So nuclear stances could be live political themes for once…)

I put this forwards as a policy line in the February 2007 discussions:

If we are to go into NPT negotiations in good faith and with the intention of actually getting results, we need to be able to show the world:
1 What the UK nuclear weapons system actually means in terms of financial costs and defence opportunity costs.
2 Give an awful warning to other states – ‘if you go down the nuclear road this is the kind of burden you will take up’.
3 Show other states that we know that disarmament measures would mean for us, have thought them through, and are politically capable of taking on the vested interests in the status quo (industrial and military and Freudian) should international agreements require us to do so.


This party has rightly taken a strong line on Civil Nuclear Power issues, and in particular on the disgraceful attempts of the current Government to ‘fake’ consultation processes. We need to take an equally strong line on the current attempt to ‘fake’ a debate on the nuclear future of the UK.



Now that Nick Clegg has shifted his position, we need to move urgently to tackle these themes. Yes we should have done this a few years ago… but better late than never

Just so I can keep track of previous posts, some links:

The Nuclear Weapons dance goes on (July 2008)

Nukes: Chris has it (nearly) magnificently right (Nov 2007) (this has a slightly polemic content now outdated but some core stuff I hold to)

Like it or not, defence policy must be debated again (Oct 2007)

Astute: the ongoing nuclear navy issue (and the BAe row) (June 2007)

Getting at the real costs of so-called Trident (February 2007)

Is ‘Trident’ a deliberate diversion from the real nuclear debate? (January 2007)

Trident, new weapons, and intelligence (December 2006)

Vanguard: the complexity or framing debate on ‘Trident’ (December 2006)

Nuclear independence and realities (December 2006)

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Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Meanwhile in the Real Nuclear World 

Who said this - in an editorial in the 'Wall Street Journal' earlier this year:

"We endorse setting the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons and working energetically on the actions required to achieve that goal"


"We" in this case are noted peacenicks and defence patsies:

  • Henry Kissinger (FormerUS Secretary of State)
  • Gerge Shultz (Former US Secretary of State)
  • William Perry (Former US secretary of Defence)
  • Sam Numm (Former US Senator for Georgia, former chair of Senate Committee on Armed Services)

This is in the context of a massive US programme to replace ageing existing nuclear warheads with a 'Reliable Replacement Warhead' that does not need testing. Excellent discussion of the science behind all this and some of the ethical issues in the November 2007 issue of Scientific American (alas neither the WSJ nor SciAm allow linking to articles).

Britain of course is snagged into all sorts of byways of this argument.

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You can see a copy of the WSJ op-ed on the Union of Concerned Scientists website (where I work) at:
http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_security/A-World-Free-of-Nuclear-Weapons.pdf

It is an amazing piece, and creates real opportunities to work on the goals they set out. And they are not done - a follow-up conference on the topic happened in October, with more to come.
 
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Monday, October 29, 2007

Like it or not defence policy must be debated again 

Our current so-called ‘Trident’ policy is not a fudge. It is an acid drop, and we need to suck on it. That includes the current leadership candidates.

The implications for our policy are clear. We voted in Parliament to delay Vanguard renewal (and were defeated). We now have an obligation as a party to carry out the clearly implied next stage of the agreed policy. That is, to debate now the position the UK should take at the upcoming negotiations and bring forwards firm recommendations. That is the acid logic of our position.

The treaty reviews are in the year 2010 – and in the meantime in 2009 we are due to have a general election in which nuclear arms policy can hardly fail to be an issue.

We therefore need to revisit this issue in 2008 at the latest, and the current leadership contest is an inevitable part of the introduction to that debate. It would be the height of irresponsibility for any leadership candidate to brush this issue aside.

We should for example:

1 Look at the way the debates on this are put into ‘defining frames’ that shut out important questions and make sure we bring in some neglected frames and themes. Please, no more tribal ‘unilateralist or not’ hot-button posturing.

2 Insist that the whole question of expenditures on AWRE Aldermaston is put in the public domain, at least to equal the public accountability enforced on equivalent establishments in the USA.

3 Insist on a complete review of the way all our weapons procurement policies are managed especially on whether purchasing decision are made to subsidise industries rather than to meet vital defence needs.

4 Make clear the connections between the procurement mess and the corruption allegations about the dealings of BAe and certain foreign customers.

5 Examine the evolution of new non-nuclear high-destruction weapons that may make nuclear devices an expensive obsolescence in the next couple of decades.

6 Above all, insist on a clear strategy for armed forces evolution and for equipping our forces actually to do the jobs we say they must.

The party needs to get on with this and our leadership candidates need to give some indication on how this should be done. The choice of leader WILL frame part of our ongoing debate, there is no escaping that fact.

I have argued some of these points in more detail elsewhere

Framing the debate with link to a paper on ways to do this

Aldermaston costs and hiding facts from the public (with link to a Daily Mail expose)

Procurement polices and problems

Corruption and specifically BAe

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Saturday, October 27, 2007

A difference on defence? 

Rugby hustings... and at last a couple of subjects that seem to differ between the candidates.

As coat-trailed in the David Steel endorsement, Chris Huhne raised the question of 'Trident Renewal' in the context of the huge demands on the armed forces, their equipment, the tasks we ask of them and the welfare of our service people. His statement that we have to question whether spending billions on Trident is the best way to spend our defence money provoked the only round of applause for either candidate in the middle of their set speeches.

Nick Clegg (who spoke first) did not mention any defence related matters and was not (as far as I heard) asked about this during the question period.

Other matters I'll maybe comment on later.

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