Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Another fine mess? (Canadian version)
It could be a really classic FPTP nonsense soup in Canada today as the 40th General Election finally gets to the polls. Yes, the ‘True North’ uses the same beloved electoral system as our own dear First-Past-The-Post Westminster Parliament, and with five parties in serious contention in one region or another no sensible person is making any serious bets of their farms on the outcome.
The main tracking polls show the Conservatives in the lead nationally (35%) eight point ahead of the Liberals (27%) with the New Democrat Party on 19% , the Bloc Quebecois on 10% and the Greens on 9% so the Tories –currently with a minority government – ought to be favourites. But hold on. Regional variations and the structure of marginals means it even more difficult to read
The BQ only fight in Quebec so that national percentage translates to 41 percent where their candidates are standing. Tories and Liberals are tied at 21% each and the NDP on 12% The Tories made big gains here in the last election but are threatened in at least half their seats by Liberals who have recovered hugely from an abyss earlier in this campaign.
In the Prairies Provinces the Tories have 52% to the Liberals 18% and the NDP 21% while in British Columbia and the Artic the Tories have 40%. Liberals 23% NDP 25% Greens 12% Marginals in BC only around Vancouver really, where Liberal and NDP support is appreciably higher.
That leaves the Maratime Provinces and Ontario. Maratime polling shows Tories on 24%, Liberals on 37%, NDP on 28% and Greens 9% and all sorts of marginals some three way. And as for Ontario, the biggest Province with about a third of the seats… well…
Cons 34% Liberal 35% NDP 21% Green 10%
Most likely result is another Tory minority administration. The NDP could conceivably overtake the Liberals by winning in the multi-way marginals to become the official opposition provided they get more seats than the BQ. Or the Liberals could squeak the 40 or so marginals and so emerge as the largest party and lead a minority administration. If tactical voting really takes hold the Tories could be creamed despite having the largest popular vote, and this is being urged by a former Tory Premier of Newfoundland who is pushing an initiative called ABUT (Anyone Bar the Tories). If so the Tories could be essentially restricted to Alberta, where they hold every seat, and revert to their recent role of being in effect the ‘Bloc Albertois’. Chances of a Liberal majority government, miniscule –would need freak ABUT results in Quebec and BC. .
As to why a Tory is campaigning bitterly against the Tories, and how the Tories (until a few weeks ago on course to gut the BQ and become the largest Quebec party) screwed up so completely they lost 40% of their support in 10 days, and why a Liberal Premier in BC refuses to campaign for the Federal Liberals (the Grits) despite the fact the Grits are pushing a Green Tax initiative (copied from our own dear selves) building on the pioneer initiative in his province .. Well Canadian politics is supposed to be boring, right, so nobody on this side of the pond could possibly be interested.
But just maybe we will end up on Wednesday morning with another superb example of why our current electoral system is a dangerous gamble, so perhaps we should spare a bit of attention.
The main tracking polls show the Conservatives in the lead nationally (35%) eight point ahead of the Liberals (27%) with the New Democrat Party on 19% , the Bloc Quebecois on 10% and the Greens on 9% so the Tories –currently with a minority government – ought to be favourites. But hold on. Regional variations and the structure of marginals means it even more difficult to read
The BQ only fight in Quebec so that national percentage translates to 41 percent where their candidates are standing. Tories and Liberals are tied at 21% each and the NDP on 12% The Tories made big gains here in the last election but are threatened in at least half their seats by Liberals who have recovered hugely from an abyss earlier in this campaign.
In the Prairies Provinces the Tories have 52% to the Liberals 18% and the NDP 21% while in British Columbia and the Artic the Tories have 40%. Liberals 23% NDP 25% Greens 12% Marginals in BC only around Vancouver really, where Liberal and NDP support is appreciably higher.
That leaves the Maratime Provinces and Ontario. Maratime polling shows Tories on 24%, Liberals on 37%, NDP on 28% and Greens 9% and all sorts of marginals some three way. And as for Ontario, the biggest Province with about a third of the seats… well…
Cons 34% Liberal 35% NDP 21% Green 10%
Most likely result is another Tory minority administration. The NDP could conceivably overtake the Liberals by winning in the multi-way marginals to become the official opposition provided they get more seats than the BQ. Or the Liberals could squeak the 40 or so marginals and so emerge as the largest party and lead a minority administration. If tactical voting really takes hold the Tories could be creamed despite having the largest popular vote, and this is being urged by a former Tory Premier of Newfoundland who is pushing an initiative called ABUT (Anyone Bar the Tories). If so the Tories could be essentially restricted to Alberta, where they hold every seat, and revert to their recent role of being in effect the ‘Bloc Albertois’. Chances of a Liberal majority government, miniscule –would need freak ABUT results in Quebec and BC. .
As to why a Tory is campaigning bitterly against the Tories, and how the Tories (until a few weeks ago on course to gut the BQ and become the largest Quebec party) screwed up so completely they lost 40% of their support in 10 days, and why a Liberal Premier in BC refuses to campaign for the Federal Liberals (the Grits) despite the fact the Grits are pushing a Green Tax initiative (copied from our own dear selves) building on the pioneer initiative in his province .. Well Canadian politics is supposed to be boring, right, so nobody on this side of the pond could possibly be interested.
But just maybe we will end up on Wednesday morning with another superb example of why our current electoral system is a dangerous gamble, so perhaps we should spare a bit of attention.
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Thursday, September 18, 2008
O Canada! O Europe! What is cooking on the comprehensive trade front?
While the USA seems to be talking itself into all sorts of protectionist corners with its various brands of election rhetoric, a different tune seems to be coming up in the True North.
The possibility of a comprehensive pact between Canada and the EU is in the air, with an economic summit planned for 17 October (three days after polling in the upcoming Canadian General Election).
That suggests Europeans could take up employment in Canada without having to go through the Landed Immigrant points procedure (and conversely that Canadians could work throughout Europe). It also implies a huge increase in trade between Europe and Canada. If the US goes protectionist it may find itself out in the cold.
While this plan seems to have the strong support of the defending Tory minority government in Ottawa, it is backstage reporting as far as the current election campaign is concerned.
Haven’t seen the Liberal party of Canada position on this as yet…
But wouldn’t it be nice to get some discussion of this in European countries? What for example do our LibDem MEPs think about this idea and what do our MEP candidates make of it? There are apparently documents within the European Commission which are not in the public domain and yet the issue affects us greatly…
The possibility of a comprehensive pact between Canada and the EU is in the air, with an economic summit planned for 17 October (three days after polling in the upcoming Canadian General Election).
The proposed pact would far exceed the scope of older agreements such as NAFTA by encompassing not only unrestricted trade in goods, services and investment and the removal of tariffs, but also the free movement of skilled people and an open market in government services and procurement… (Globe and Mail 18 September)
That suggests Europeans could take up employment in Canada without having to go through the Landed Immigrant points procedure (and conversely that Canadians could work throughout Europe). It also implies a huge increase in trade between Europe and Canada. If the US goes protectionist it may find itself out in the cold.
While this plan seems to have the strong support of the defending Tory minority government in Ottawa, it is backstage reporting as far as the current election campaign is concerned.
Because of the election, Mr. Harper appears to have decided not to unveil a full text of the proposed agreement, but instead to use the summit to inaugurate the trade talks with the launch of a “scoping exercise” that will quickly set the goals of the pact and lead to formal
“comprehensive trade and investment negotiations” to begin in “early 2009,” according to communications between senior Canadian and European officials examined by The Globe and Mail.
Haven’t seen the Liberal party of Canada position on this as yet…
But wouldn’t it be nice to get some discussion of this in European countries? What for example do our LibDem MEPs think about this idea and what do our MEP candidates make of it? There are apparently documents within the European Commission which are not in the public domain and yet the issue affects us greatly…
Labels: Canada, European Union, free trade
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Wednesday, September 28, 2005
Dynamic symbol for Liberal Canada
Just to show how insular we are with our International outlooks, Canada installed a new Governor-General yesterday. I didn't notice either, despite having an interest in Canadian matters, or so I thought. Thoughts - great, Canada, some envy from me, and a plus point for Canada's Federal Liberal government...
Anyway, the new 'GG' is Michaëlle Jean. She is a former refugee from Haiti.
Official Governor-General site here.
This from the Globe and Mail:
From her speech:
Anyway, the new 'GG' is Michaëlle Jean. She is a former refugee from Haiti.
Official Governor-General site here.
This from the Globe and Mail:
The rewriting of the job definition began with Adrienne Clarkson, whose
energy and activism earned admiration among Canadians. She became a patron of
the armed forces at a time when the military was often ignored, visited
regularly with aboriginals and had a general, common touch.But she might have
been an anomaly in the job had Mr. Martin (the Prime Minister) not cemented her
approach by choosing Ms. Jean as her successor.
As a refugee from Haiti, the 48-year-old former journalist symbolizes the
equality of opportunity that is slowly becoming this government's hallmark. That
characteristic is perhaps best exemplified by the legalization of same-sex
marriage, but can also be found in Mr. Martin's embrace of policies that would
increase the number of immigrants.
Ms. Jean is also a Quebecker who comes from neither the French nor the
English side of the debate. While her role is not to bridge that chasm, her
appointment does at least reflect an emerging and different demographic in the
province.
In her ambassadorial role, Ms. Jean laid out yesterday what her personal
crusades will be. While Ms. Clarkson championed natives and the military, Ms.
Jean will be an ambassador for children, Canadian unity and the equality of
opportunity.
"Nothing in today's society is more disgraceful than the marginalization of
some young people who are driven to isolation and despair," she said. "We must
not tolerate such disparities."
From her speech:
Car l’espoir a éclairé tout mon parcours d’enfant et de femme et s’est
incarné dans ce pays aux possibilités illimitées que, il faut bien l’avouer,
l’on tient parfois pour acquis. Depuis la petite fille née dans un autre
pays “barbelé de pied en cap”, pour reprendre l’expression si forte de mon oncle
le poète René Depestre, celle qui a vu ses parents, sa famille, ses amis aux
prises avec les horreurs d’une dictature sans merci, jusqu’à la femme qui se
tient devant vous aujourd’hui, c’est tout un apprentissage de la liberté qui a
vu le jour. Je sais à quel point cette liberté est précieuse et quel héritage
fabuleux elle représente pour chaque enfant et chaque citoyen de ce
pays. Moi dont les ancêtres étaient des esclaves, moi qui suis
issue d’une civilisation longtemps réduite aux chuchotements et aux cris de la
douleur, j’en connais le prix et je reconnais en elle notre plus grand trésor
collectif. "
Labels: Canada
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